In today's uncertain and dynamic world, strategic foresight is key for Not-for-profits (NFP). It helps them plan for future challenges and opportunities, making sure their missions stay meaningful and current. Yet many NFPs miss out on this key leadership capability.
Why do NFPs miss out on strategic foresight / futures thinking?
Faced with unpredictable shifts in funding, regulatory changes, and emerging societal needs, these organisations are often in reactive mode, responding to immediate challenges rather than proactively planning for the future. Despite the clear benefits of futures thinking, it remains an underutilised approach. Several factors contribute to this gap:
- Resource Constraints: NFPs often operate with tight budgets and limited manpower. This can lead to a short-term focus, with resources dedicated to pressing current needs rather than long-term strategic planning.
- Lack of awareness and skills: Futures thinking and strategic foresight are niche skills that for many NFPs have gone unnoticed or underutilised. For strategic planning, there is a tendency to stick with what works and is familiar.
- Mindful Resource Use: Given their mission-driven nature, NFPs must ensure that every dollar and hour spent brings them closer to their goals. This can create a hesitation to invest in seemingly abstract or unfamiliar strategies like futures thinking.
The result? Many NFPs miss out on the chance to anticipate change, optimise their resource allocation, and identify those pivotal leverage points that can amplify their impact.
What is strategic foresight and futures thinking?
Strategic foresight, often termed as corporate foresight in a business context, refers to a systematic and structured process that organisations use to anticipate, envision, and adapt to long-term changes and uncertainties in their external environment. By analysing trends, driving forces, and potential disruptions, organisations equip themselves to shape their future, rather than merely react to it.
The roots of strategic foresight can be traced back to the post-World War II era, when there was a surge in future studies aimed at understanding the implications of technological advancements and societal changes. By the late 20th century, as the business environment grew more complex and globalised, companies began to recognise the need for tools that could help them navigate and capitalise on future uncertainties. Thus, the practices of foresight were adopted, refined, and integrated into organisational planning and strategy predominantly within government and large global organisations. Read more about the evolution of futures thinking.
While traditional strategic foresight was focused predominantly on scenario planning, trend analysis and market research, the more modern approach, termed as "futures thinking," elevates this process. Futures thinking builds upon the foundational elements of foresight but integrates techniques from design thinking, sensemaking, collaborative, inclusive facilitation, cognitive science and action-oriented steps. This more approachable combination allows organisations to not just anticipate changes, but to creatively ideate and prototype potential solutions, ensuring that strategies are innovative and adaptable. The lean approaches used by design thinking also make futures thinking more affordable and accessible to smaller organisations such as NFPs.
How can NFPs apply futures thinking?
The most popular and accessible methods that NFPs can use to enhance their future thinking are:
